On this last day of 2025 I shudder about a new political development in the Middle East. My view is that Israel has just made plans for a possible future war. They recognised Somaliland as an independent state. No other UN country has done this.
Somaliland is a self-declared republic in the Horn of Africa. It has a history of colonial rule, a failed political union, and a journey to build a stable democracy. Israel’s is making hard-nosed strategic calculations about its future in the turbulent Horn of Africa and Red Sea region. Over the past decade, there have been intermittent talks and in 2025, confidential negotiations led by Israel’s Foreign Minister finalised the deal. Israel’s intelligence agency, the Mossad laid the groundwork through discreet relationships.
The Israel announcement came amid reports that the US and Israel had approached Somaliland about potentially resettling Palestinians from Gaza.
Somaliland’s government has not formally accepted such a plan but the report has added to the political sensitivity of the recognition. Israel, and of course, its mentor the US, now have another foothold on the Gulf of Aden. This is seen as a provocative move by many Middle East countries about importing a conflict an or war into Africa. It threatens regional security.
For little New Zealand does this mean anything to us? So many people will say …NO…NO!!!!!!! But the world does affect us. Conflict in the world affects our oil prices. This affects the price of bread, milk and… the cost of living. And where will our politicians stand or sit?
I’m worried. As my grandchildren become adults, we now have a enlarged footprint for Israel and a possibility for more war in the Middle East and also Africa. Israel recognised Somaliland, but will not recognise the rights of Palestinians to their have their own state.
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